Boston College

Conference:	ACC
Expected RPI:	96.0
Current RPI:	96
Expected SOS:	69
Current SOS:	69
Current Record:	19-15
Expected Record:	19-15
Current Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	121
Expected OOC SOS:	298

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-15	96.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston College.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	85-65	W	100%
11-12	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	91-52	W	100%
11-14	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	73-53	W	100%
11-18	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	N	64-75	L	0%
11-19	La Salle (202.0)	A10	N	61-82	W	100%
11-22	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	83-79	W	100%
11-25	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	86-66	L	0%
11-29	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	A	71-62	L	0%
12-2	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	61-73	W	100%
12-9	Duke (7.0)	ACC	H	89-84	W	100%
12-12	Columbia (316.0)	Ivy	H	81-66	W	100%
12-17	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	84-65	W	100%
12-23	Richmond (176.0)	A10	H	78-73	W	100%
12-30	Virginia (1.0)	ACC	A	59-58	L	0%
1-3	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	H	70-74	L	0%
1-6	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	H	77-71	W	100%
1-9	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	A	96-66	L	0%
1-13	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	86-72	W	100%
1-15	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	H	81-75	W	100%
1-21	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	77-69	L	0%
1-24	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	81-63	L	0%
1-31	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	H	80-85	L	0%
2-4	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	H	80-72	W	100%
2-6	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	A	96-85	L	0%
2-10	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	H	72-70	W	100%
2-13	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	58-81	W	100%
2-17	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	H	67-84	L	0%
2-20	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	A	82-66	L	0%
2-24	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	A	79-78	L	0%
2-28	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	H	85-70	W	100%
3-3	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	A	85-76	L	0%
3-6	Georgia Tech (161.0)	ACC	N	87-77	W	100%
3-7	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	N	87-91	W	100%
3-8	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	N	90-82	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston College's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boston College's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boston College.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boston College	ACC	26.11	26.11	53.79	53.79	1.98	1.98
Notre Dame	ACC	3.59	3.59	54.84	54.84	0.35	0.35
Clemson	ACC	3.56	3.56	70.00	70.00	1.42	1.42
North Carolina St.	ACC	3.53	3.53	66.67	66.67	1.18	1.18
Syracuse	ACC	3.51	3.51	61.29	61.29	0.79	0.79
Georgia Tech	ACC	3.51	3.51	43.33	43.33	-0.47	-0.47
Florida St.	ACC	3.51	3.51	65.52	65.52	1.09	1.09
Miami FL	ACC	3.51	3.51	72.41	72.41	1.57	1.57
North Carolina	ACC	2.22	2.22	70.59	70.59	0.92	0.92
Virginia	ACC	2.15	2.15	93.75	93.75	1.88	1.88
Wake Forest	ACC	2.15	2.15	36.67	36.67	-0.57	-0.57
Louisville	ACC	2.11	2.11	59.38	59.38	0.40	0.40
Pittsburgh	ACC	2.11	2.11	25.81	25.81	-1.02	-1.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.09	2.09	64.52	64.52	0.61	0.61
Duke	ACC	2.08	2.08	81.25	81.25	1.30	1.30
Maine	AE	1.64	1.64	13.79	13.79	-1.19	-1.19
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.62	1.62	24.00	24.00	-0.84	-0.84
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.61	1.61	31.03	31.03	-0.61	-0.61
Columbia	Ivy	1.58	1.58	28.00	28.00	-0.69	-0.69
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.57	1.57	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
Hartford	AE	1.57	1.57	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Colgate	Pat	1.54	1.54	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
La Salle	A10	1.54	1.54	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Richmond	A10	1.52	1.52	38.71	38.71	-0.34	-0.34
South Carolina St.	MEAC	1.52	1.52	27.59	27.59	-0.68	-0.68
Providence	BE	1.50	1.50	60.61	60.61	0.32	0.32
Texas Tech	B12	1.50	1.50	71.88	71.88	0.65	0.65
Nebraska	B10	1.47	1.47	67.74	67.74	0.52	0.52
Bryant	NEC	0.22	0.22	9.68	9.68	-0.17	-0.17
Albany	AE	0.20	0.20	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.18	0.18	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Stony Brook	AE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
UMass Lowell	AE	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.14	0.14	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.14	0.14	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola MD	Pat	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	Pat	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	15.62	15.62	-0.08	-0.08
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.12	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	BE	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.04	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.04	0.04	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.04	0.04	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.04	0.04	3.33	3.33	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.04	0.04	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.04	0.04	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.04	0.04	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.04	0.04	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.04	0.04	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00